Extended Abstract:

Introduction

The 2022 report from the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) shows a worrying increase in the frequency of global hazards, emphasizing the urgent need for accurate hazard prediction and risk assessment. Among natural hazards, the most important hazard that imposes numerous challenges and damages on cities is earthquakes. In other words, earthquakes are one of the most destructive natural events due to their unpredictability, the vastness of their impact area, and the physical, socio-economic, and psychological destruction they cause. Earthquakes can also cause psychological effects and mental health problems, including post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, and anxiety. As a result, today's cities face increasing levels of uncertainty and vulnerability, especially to natural hazards such as earthquakes. Therefore, in order to face these hazards and other crises, the concept of urban resilience is becoming increasingly important. Resilience does not just mean returning to normal in the face of external changes; it also includes adaptation and reducing vulnerability. For this purpose, considering the importance of resilience in dealing with various hazards and crises, the present study was written with the aim of developing an effective resilience planning model against natural hazards with an emphasis on earthquakes in Tabriz metropolis.



Methodology

The research method in the present study is mixed in terms of type (quantitative and qualitative), applied in terms of purpose, and analytical and exploratory in nature. In this study, first, by reviewing theoretical texts and literature, as well as interviewing urban crisis management experts, the components of effective resilience planning against earthquake hazards based on international discourses were identified, and then, by questioning the sample size and utilizing structural equation modeling in Amos software, the effectiveness of each component was examined. Also, in order to formulate strategies and a desirable model for effective resilience planning for Tabriz metropolis against earthquake hazards, have been used the extracted components and their refinement in the dimensions of resilience (economic, social, cultural, physical, infrastructure, and institutional). At this stage, the method used is field research. It is worth noting that the statistical population of the study includes managers, officials, and academic elites in the field of urban crisis management, which due to the uncertainty of the number of the statistical population, the sample size was estimated using the Cohen method of 100.



Results and discussion

Based on the results obtained from the structural model, the most important components of effective resilience planning of Tabriz metropolis against earthquake hazards include preparedness-based planning, prevention-based planning, exposure-based planning, and reconstruction and empowerment-based planning, whose coefficients are 0.690, 0.605, 0.602, and 0.548, respectively. Among the sub-variables, the creation of integrated and educational structural organizations in the field of crises and how to prevent them, the formation of decision-making support and guidance systems to provide crisis preparedness strategies by benefiting from various expertise and public and institutional participation, the strengthening of collective diplomacy to participate with relevant institutions in order to face the crisis, and the creation of physical and non-physical enabling structures for optimal and effective action after the effects and results of the crisis are considered the most important components of effective resilience planning in Tabriz metropolis against earthquake risk, with coefficients of 0.785, 0.761, 0.744, and 0.727, respectively. Also, the final core model and category included governance based on policy review and the realization of an integrated organizational structure, institutional and social capacity building, revolving budgets, preparation of a basis for risk zoning, and early warning and recovery systems.



Conclusion

Tabriz metropolis is considered one of the seismically active cities in Iran, and the presence of active faults and high seismicity, especially in the northern part of the city, on the one hand, and the extensive dilapidated urban fabric and unstable buildings, high population density and infrastructure, as well as fundamental shortcomings in the management system, have made this city vulnerable to earthquake crises. For this purpose, it is necessary to take fundamental measures with an emphasis on comprehensive approaches such as resilience to face earthquakes. Based on the results of the research and on the principles of resilience proposed in various international discourses, city resilience planning is feasible in four stages and levels of prevention, preparedness, response, and reconstruction and empowerment. Also, integration of economic, social, cultural, physical, infrastructure, and institutional dimensions is mandatory in each of these stages. In other words, each level of urban resilience planning includes different dimensions, and comprehensiveness in planning these dimensions with the participation of all stakeholders is considered the main key to success in facing the earthquake crisis. Therefore, urban crisis management needs to provide the foundations for making the city resilient to various hazards, especially earthquakes, by creating integration in the management system and emphasizing a participatory approach, integrating different elements and dimensions in planning, separating interventions in different contexts and emphasizing local planning, promoting social and economic structures, and also modeling successful global examples and localizing them based on the principles emphasized in international discourses.