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Scenario-Based Evaluation of Foresight Methods for Smart Seismic Systems Using an Integrated SWARA–VIKOR Model under Fuzzy-Grey Uncertainty

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Shahin Lale Arefi 1
Mahdi Bitarafan 2
1 Department of Civil Engineering, Esfarayen University of Technology, Esfarayen, Iran
2 International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran, Iran
10.22034/scj.2026.2096608.1267
Abstract
The rapid development of smart seismic systems has made future-oriented decision-making increasingly complex, particularly when technological uncertainty, implementation constraints, and resilience requirements must be considered simultaneously. This study develops a scenario-based framework for evaluating four foresight methods; actor analysis, brainstorming, bibliometric analysis, and patent analysis for supporting strategic decisions on smart seismic systems. The assessment was based on the judgments of 12 experts and eight criteria grouped into two categories: process-related criteria and resilience-oriented criteria. Criterion weights were derived using the Fuzzy-Grey SWARA method, while the alternatives were ranked through Fuzzy-Grey VIKOR under three decision scenarios: baseline, supportive, and resource-constrained. The robustness of the results was further examined using sensitivity analysis and 100,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulations. The findings show that adaptability, robustness, and rapidity are the most influential criteria, with resilience-related criteria accounting for 63% of the total model weight. Bibliometric analysis ranked first in all three scenarios, followed by patent analysis. Monte Carlo results indicated that bibliometric analysis retained the first rank with a probability above 99.8% in every scenario, whereas the probability of satisfying VIKOR’s acceptable-advantage condition was 46.7% in the baseline scenario, 77.5% in the supportive scenario, and only 12.1% under resource constraints. These results show that rank stability should not be interpreted as decisive superiority. A robust foresight decision should therefore consider not only the final ranking, but also the strength of separation between leading alternatives and the stability of that separation under uncertainty.
Keywords
Foresight
Smart seismic systems
Resilience
Fuzzy-Grey, SWARA-VIKOR
Scenario analysis
Monte Carlo simulation
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Safe City
Volume 9, Issue 2 - Serial Number 34
Summer 2026
Pages 325-352