Safe City

Safe City

Developing a Model for Assessing Urban Resilience to Aerial Attacks Using the IHWP Method: A Case Study of District 5, Tehran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Mahdi Bitarafan 1
Kambod Amini Hossini 2
1 PhD Candidate, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran, Iran
2 Risk Management Research Center, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran, Iran
10.22034/ispdrc.2023.2001724.1030
Abstract
Extended Abstract
In recent decades, with the increasing complexity of military threats and the growing risks posed by terrorist and aerial attacks, the issue of urban resilience has become one of the main pillars of research in crisis management and passive defence. Large cities, due to their high population density, concentration of critical infrastructures, and the presence of sensitive political, economic, and military centres, are more exposed than other areas to threats arising from airstrikes. Tehran, as the capital of the Islamic Republic of Iran, is not only the country’s administrative and political decision-making centre but also hosts numerous military, industrial, economic, and cultural facilities, each of which may be considered a potential target in air attack scenarios. Among Tehran’s districts, District 5 holds particular importance due to its geographical location in the northwest of the capital, high population density, rapid urban expansion, and specific access routes. These conditions highlight the necessity of conducting a comprehensive assessment of the resilience level of this district against potential threats.
Problem Statement
Despite the significance of the issue, no precise and systematic scientific assessments of District 5’s resilience against air attacks have been carried out to date. Most previous studies have focused on earthquakes, natural disasters, or social vulnerability, while military and terrorist threats—particularly airstrikes—have seldom been systematically analyzed at the urban scale. Therefore, this study seeks to identify and evaluate various indicators of vulnerability and response capacity by employing the theoretical framework of urban resilience and the principles of passive defence, in order to provide a clearer picture of the district’s condition.
Methodology
This research is applied in nature and based on descriptive–analytical methods. Data were collected through library studies and questionnaires. The main resilience indicators were defined in four dimensions: physical–infrastructural, socio–cultural, economic, and organizational. Each indicator was weighted according to its importance and influence by a panel of experts in crisis management, earthquake engineering, urban design, and passive defence. Subsequently, using multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods and spatial analysis in a GIS environment, the resilience levels of different parts of District 5 were calculated and mapped.
Findings
The results indicate that the overall resilience of Tehran’s District 5 against aerial threats ranges from low to moderate. Among the evaluated indicators, physical–infrastructural factors such as building resistance, the robustness of critical networks (water, electricity, gas, and telecommunications), and the status of evacuation routes were assessed as weak. In the social dimension, public awareness and citizen training regarding crisis management were low, although social capital and local participation were relatively stronger in some neighbourhoods. In the economic dimension, heavy reliance on concentrated commercial centres and the absence of effective insurance and financial support programs increased vulnerability. In the organizational dimension, although management and service institutions were relatively available, inter-organizational coordination and the speed of emergency response required significant improvement.
Spatial analysis further revealed that the northern and western parts of the district, due to their proximity to highlands and limited emergency access routes, had the highest vulnerability. In contrast, some central and eastern neighbourhoods showed relatively higher resilience owing to better accessibility to communication and service networks. This spatial heterogeneity underscores the need for targeted policy-making at the neighbourhood scale.
Conclusion
The study emphasizes that enhancing the resilience of District 5 against aerial threats requires multi-dimensional strategies. These include decentralizing critical infrastructures and sensitive centres, improving and expanding evacuation routes and emergency access, educating and empowering citizens in crisis preparedness, strengthening organizational coordination among responsible institutions, and developing post-crisis insurance and financial support mechanisms. Overall, the research provides a comprehensive picture of the strengths and weaknesses of District 5 in the face of air attacks and offers a foundation for future urban management and passive defence planning.
Keywords
Threats
Air Attacks
Resilience
IHWP Method
Tehran City
Subjects

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