نشریه علمی شهر ایمن

نشریه علمی شهر ایمن

برآورد آسیب‌پذیری مکانی و جمعیتی ناشی از تخریب زیرساخت‎های انتقال نیرو در اثر حملات خصمانه با GIS

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
سعید مهری 1
نوید هوشنگی 2
1 دکتری مهندسی GIS؛ دانشکده ژئودزی-ژئوماتیک؛ دانشگاه صنعتی خواجه‌نصیرالدین طوسی
2 گروه مهندسی نقشه برداری، دانشکده مهندسی علوم زمین، دانشگاه صنعتی اراک
10.22034/ispdrc.2022.700905
چکیده
با توجه به اهمیت استراتژیک شبکه­ی انتقال نیرو، شناخت میزان اثرات ناشی از بین رفتن بخش‌های مختلف در اثر حملات خصمانه، ضرورت داشته و امکان پیش‌آگاهی و برنامه‌ریزی را فراهم می­کند. هدف اصلی این تحقیق برآورد میزان آسیب‌پذیری مکانی- جمعیتی استان آذربایجان شرقی ناشی از تخریب زیرساخت­های انتقال نیرو در اثر حملات خصمانه می­باشد. به این منظور، روشی جدید بر مبنای استفاده از سیستم اطلاعات مکانی (GIS)، تئوری گراف و مفاهیم پدافند غیرعامل ارائه می­شود. روش پیشنهادی برای شناسایی المان‌های مؤثر شبکه­ی انتقال نیرو، در چهار سناریوی فرضی (تخریب پست­های شهرستان اهر، میانه، جلفا و تیکمه‌داش) از نظر بعد مکانی و جمعیتی اعمال شد. نتایج تحقیق نشان می­دهد که با تخریب پست شهرستان اهر پهنه‌ای به وسعت 9190 کیلومترمربع دچار خاموشی شده و 287000 نفر تحت تأثیر قرار خواهند گرفت. در مقایسه با تخریب پست برق شهرستان اهر، تخریب پست‌های شهرستان‌های میانه، جلفا و تیکمه‌داش به‌ترتیب 37، 81 و 15 درصد از نظر مساحت خاموشی و 35، 81 و 44 درصد از نظر جمعیت، محدوده­ی کوچک‌تری را تحت تأثیر قرار می­دهد. روش ارائه‌شده امکان آزمون و برآورد میزان تخریب سناریوهای متعدد را فراهم کرده و می‌توان از الگوی ایجادشده در زیرساخت‌های دیگری مانند خطوط نفت و گاز نیز استفاده کرد. 
کلیدواژه‌ها
تئوری گراف
آسیب‌پذیری مکانی- جمعیتی
شبکه توزیع برق
حملات خصمانه
پدافند غیرعامل
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Estimation of Spatial and Demographic Vulnerability Due to Destruction of Transmission Infrastructure in Hostile Attacks by GIS

نویسندگان English

Saeed Mehri 1
Navid Hooshangi 2
1 Master's degree, GIS Engineering Department; Faculty of Geodesy-Geomatics; Khajahan Nasiruddin Toosi University of Technology; Tehran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Surveying Engineering; Faculty of Geoscience Engineering; Arak University of Technology
چکیده English

The dependence of human activities on the electrical energy infrastructure has increased the strategic
importance of this infrastructure. The examination of various military operations shows that the power
network has always been the focus of hostile attacks on this infrastructure. Understanding the destruction
effects on various parts of the electric network as a result of hostile attacks, identifies important elements
and provides the possibility of forecasting and planning passive and active defense strategies. The main
purpose of this study is to estimate the spatial-demographic vulnerability of East Azerbaijan province due
to the destruction of power transmission infrastructure. To this end, a new method based on the use of
Geospatial Information System (GIS), graph theory and passive defense concepts is proposed and it is
determined that if a part of an infrastructure is damaged by hostile attacks, what geographical area and
how many populations will be deprived of the services of that infrastructure. The proposed method has
been applied in four different hypothetical scenarios (destruction of substations in Ahar, Miyaneh, Jolfa
and Tikmeh Dash) in terms of spatial and demographic dimensions to identify the effective elements of
simulated power transmission network of East Azerbaijan in Iran.
The results of the research show that the spatial and demographic vulnerabilities of the first scenario
(degradation of the 230 kV substations) are greater than the other scenarios. With the destruction of the
Ahar city power station, an area of 9190 square kilometers will suffer from power outages and 287,000
people will be affected. Compared to the destruction of substations in Ahar city, the destruction extent of
substations in Miyaneh, Jolfa and Tikmeh cities was 37%, 81% and 15% in terms of power outages area
and 35%, 81% and 44% in terms of population, respectively. The proposed method provides the
possibility of testing and estimating the effects of destruction of various scenarios and the model created
in other infrastructures such as oil and gas lines can also be used. The study of the proposed method
showed that graph theory has a high capability in determining, evaluating and identifying the
infrastructure of spatial-demographic vulnerability of the electricity network.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Graph Theory
The Spatial-Demographic Vulnerability
Power Transmission Network
Passive Defense
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